I think I would give the dough in the photo a little longer because the shaping seams are still visible. It’s hard to say without seeing a “before” photo : )
(I’m guessing that the timing you mention above is probably overproofing the dough: 12-24 hours in the refrigerator + a few more at room temp.)
Yes, I am over proofing
Thank you
I’m a poor one to ask in this case because you are refrigerating the dough but from my novice eye it does not look fermented fully. As I now know what to look for using two different grains bulked slightly above room temp., I would let it go further BUT Melissa and Abe seem to be more on top of the retardation issue.
I started a whole grain this morning at 7am and the levain is still not ready at 6pm so it looks like I will be retarding the mix tonight. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed but I won’t be retarding at the temps Melissa uses.
I did the ‘intuitive thing’ for about 5 years. While I was, on occasion, able to get a good loaf of bread, I was unable to get consistent results. Not being a baker by nature or by training, and, being in my 70’s, and, having limited energy, I decided to learn not only from my own mistakes but also from the mistakes of others. Therefore, I watched many youtubes and that many of those people were making my same mistakes. I found it interesting that I could actually know from the beginning of the video how the bread would come out! However, after watching many different videos, I began to see a pattern and realized that all 'less than perfect loaves" (loaves that I would eat without feeling deprived of store-bought bread) usually failed in two ways: the starter was not ‘ripe’ or the water content did not take into account the amount of water in the starter. I would be willing to bet that every one of you who makes his/ her bread ‘intuitively’ discovered what constitutes are ‘ripe’ starter (without ever calling it that) and learned the ‘hard’ way (feel, error, etc) the amount of total hydration needed for your flour. Since I was training other friends to make sourdough bread, I had to pay attention to small details and find words to explain what I was doing. Not every one understands the subtle difference between sticky and tacky dough. Not everyone knows that your finished loaf will be drier than your dough! Not everyone knows that if your dough is too sticky, your bread will be moister (and mold faster) or that an easily worked dough (not sticky or tacky) will result in a dry, crumbly loaf of bread. But…once someone has succeeded in making a good tasting loaf (neither too wet or too dry), s/he knows what to ‘see’, ‘feel’. etc when making the dough. I realize that some people can make bread without such aids (as I can knit an ‘idea’ without needing someone to guide me). However, I will always be grateful to those willing to let me know their mistakes so that, today, 12 years later, I can make a boule, a sandwich loaf, and a dozen sandwich thins that I look forward to eating. Yes, it took me years of experimentation. But, as my grandma taught me decades ago, the JOURNEY is the DESTINATION. While my journey may have seemed complicated, it certainly has been memorable! 
Maybe I’ll be able to make God a sandwich thin on the other side. 
If the bet were to include both of the things you mentioned, then I’m afraid you would lose that bet in my case. I totally agree about the hydration part - that’s definitely a big part of what I call “listening to the dough”. And getting the hydration right-ish is one of the main reasons that I think developing dough intuition is the only real way to get consistently good results unless you want to limit yourself to rigidly controlled inputs to which you can apply a formula of some kind.
It’s specifically because flours vary so extremely in their responses to mixing with water that it seems important to me to develop a feeling sense of what the right range of hydration is without recourse to a formula or fixed hydration percentage.
With regard to ripeness of starter, I must part ways with you. Although I think I can tell how ripe (or not) a starter is from years of doing sourdough more conventionally than I do now, the way I bake bread these days has come to 100% ignore all of that. I honestly just leave my very small amount of starter unfed for a couple months at a time in a jar in the refrigerator and then just mix a tiny amount - less than half a teaspoon - of it in with my flour and water when I am mixing up the dough for a loaf.
Then I pay attention to the dough, which I now think of as a fairly large batch of starter, and wait for it to get “ripe” - aka to be done with its bulk fermentation period. Using such a small amount of cold, unfed starter, it takes a pretty long time for my dough to start rising at all. For my preferred timing, that means that I am usually mixing the dough up in the early evening and leaving it to bulk proof at room temperature overnight. Then I start keeping an eye on it in the morning, usually do a couple rounds of stretching and folding in the morning hours so I can feel it and smell it and see how it’s doing and monitor its progress. I find that the length of the bulk fermentation varies a lot. The usual range is between about 14 hours on the low end up to sometimes 20 or 22 hours on the high end. Temperature has a lot to do with that, but also what flour(s) I am baking bread with, how recently I happen to have fed the starter, and probably a bazillion other invisible things that I don’t need to worry about as long as I pay attention to the dough and have a feeling for what I want it to look / feel / smell like when it’s time to stop bulk proofing it.
Anyway, that’s my process and the consistency of what I would call very good bread has become pleasantly boring.